Investing In Stocks Using Spam As Your Guide

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May 7, 2008

Ticker tape About a month ago, I received an e-mail message from one “William” (no last name given), e-mail address bacaefdgdedfc@casaantelmo.com.ar

The e-mail was called “have become available to Linux users since the first release.” and began thusly:

ABC, NBC, CBS & FOX Now for upcoming I thought I was kill at least 89 in BaghdadTwin attacks.downloads now in Y! Music’s TV Wants You. when you find yourself cracking up uncontrollably.I had noIdol begins this week! and you’ll discover that this man isn’t just a smart-ass, but one really smart guy.I’d love to be involved, but I just find it hard to be motivated to do another screenplay right nowand you’ll discover that this man isn’t just a smart-ass, but one really smart guy.I’d love to be involved, but I just find it hard to be motivated to do another screenplay right nowUniversity bombings Check out filming in your area. Is it time for your star to shine?Nigeria clashes prompt Shell evacuationsthat was the best career choice for me.

Then Mr.(?) William went on to recommend what he called “a hot stock pick about to soar through the ceiling, bringing 300% of first day power” and to buy this stock now so you can “ride the sweet ride to the top.”

The stock was “PHYA” - Physicians Adult Daycare - and the e-mail ended with “Check exciting info on your broker website about that amazing stock! WARNING: It is impossible to PURCHASE this exciting share via online brokers site. PLEASE telephone YOUR brokers AND MAKE your order. BUY this exciting share on MON DAY!!!”

And for those of you who don’t know, any stock that is un-buyable via normal brokerage means is a “pink sheet” or “Over-The-Counter” stock…which in normal terms means it’s probably a smelly load of shit.

Now normally, I just delete these kinds of stupid e-mails just like you do. But not this time. No. This time I got curious. I wanted to see what would really happen over the longer term if someone really decided to take the stock touting advice of spam.

So I tracked the performance of this “hot buy” over the course of the next month, and I think the following chart speaks for itself:

As you can see, following Mr. William’s advice would have lost me around 60% of my portfolio’s value in less than a month. Statistically, you’re really better off taking your money to a casino and playing slots or blackjack. Literally.

Better luck next time, William. Time to get out of the stock ‘pump and dump’ business and go back to asking people if they want to supersize those fries.

But you may be thinking to yourself (pssh, right) “Ok Greg, but that is just one spam stock recommendation. You can’t make such a blanket statement as you have based solely on one example.”

Well, ok, wiseass.

Let’s look at this 2nd e-mail I received from a “Cartwright C. Virginia” called “citizens living overseas.”

This e-mail read:

Investors Are excited As “Hound Dog” Continues make the news! More news
expected Thursday!

The Motion Picture Group
Symbol: MPRG
Price: $0.22 UP 16% today

Investors are grabbing up MPRG as the media continues to buzz about
Dakota Fanning’s new film “Hound Dog”. Volume jumped 350% and price
climbed another 16% today alone. Jump in and grab MPRG first thing
Thursday.

The e-mail then goes on to cite several fragmented passages from some semi-well-known classical works of literature, and finally ends up concluding with a cut-and-paste discussion about horse racing.

(seriously though, does anyone actually make trading decisions based on this kind of hokey bullshit?)

Ok, well anyway I decided to also track this Motion Picture Group stock. Here are my findings (which should not be at all surprising to you):